Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
What you need to know for Monday’s playoff games
Siakam’s Slate: toronto lists Scotty Barnes, Gary Trent Jr.. and Thaddeus Young as doubtful to play in Monday’s matchup with the 76ers. Lineup data with all three off the floor this season reveals a potentially slate-shifting DFS performance from Pascal Siakam; he has posted a whopping 10.7 more DraftKings points per 36 minutes in such scenarios. Siakam paced the Raptors with 92 touches in Saturday’s loss — 34 more than any teammate. Not only is Siakam a building block for cash and tournament lineups, his assist prop of 5.5 stands out given he posted a team-high 14 potential assists on Saturday, while creation duties only grow with Barnes ailing.
Wingman Will: Denver’s Will Barton led his team with 6.1 drives per game this season, but he has nearly doubled that rate with 11 in the series opener against the Warriors. Barton touched the ball 62 times on Saturday, eight more than his season average. Not only does Barton enter today’s three-game slate as an affordable DFS candidate to pair with pricey superstars such as Nikola Jockic, his rebounding and passing props also prove attractive. The playmaking wing posted 10 potential assists and 12 rebounding chances, both significantly higher than his rates this year.
We talk about Brunson: There’s no way to actually replace Luka Doncić‘s impact, but Jalen Brunson is being asked to take his game to new levels with his superstar teammate sidelined. With Doncic doubtful to play Game 2 as he recovers from a calf injury, it’s helpful to reference Brunson’s role of him in the opener that saw him loft a team-high 24 shots in 40 minutes with a Luka-like 34.5% usage rate. Which brings us to Brunson being a building block this evening against Utah, a team he has averaged 25.5 points on 24.5 field-goal attempts across his last two Luka-less outings. Brunson’s had 14 rebounding chances and 13 potential assists this past Saturday, notable given his current rebounding (4.5) and assist (4.5) props.
–Jim McCormick
game of the night
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Line: Warriors-7
moneyline: Warriors -300, Nuggets +240
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.1
BPI Win%: Warriors (76.1%)
Key players ruled out: jamal murray, Michael Porter Jr.., James Wisemann
Best bet: Warriors -7. My biggest question for the Warriors coming into the playoffs was whether there might be rust and/or chemistry issues due to all the injuries. Stephen Curry was the latest to return, but each of Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson missed huge swathes of games this season and rarely got the chance to play together as a group along with their new teammates. But their effort on Saturday quieted those fears for me. If they are all healthy and playing well, together, the Warriors have too much firepower on offense from too many different angles for the almost purely Jokic-centric attack of the Nuggets to be able to keep up. — Andre’ Snellings
Bestbet: Aaron Gordon over 23.5 points+assists+rebounds. Gordon’s poor performance in Game 1 was surprising considering how well he played to close out the regular season. In his previous five games, Gordon averaged 19.6 PPG, 3.0 APG and 8.0 RPG. I expect his performance from him to improve in Game 2. – Eric Moody
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
7:30 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Line: Sixers -6.5
moneyline: Sixers -280, Raptors +230
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 216.3
BPI Win%: Sixers (79.4%)
Key players ruled out: Charles Bassey; Barnes, Trent, Young are doubtful
Best bet: 76ers -6.5. The Raptors looked outmatched by the 76ers in Game 1. Philadelphia executed its game plan to perfection, so it would be surprising if the Sixers changed it significantly. james harden and Joel Embid received a lot of attention from the Raptors’ defense, but Tyrese Maxey and TobiasHarris easily filled that void. Most likely without Barnes and Young, the outlook for Toronto on Monday night is not good. In Game 2, I see no reason to bet against the 76ers. — moody
Best bet: Sixers over 112.5 points. Yes, Philadelphia struggled offensively against Toronto in the teams’ regular season meetings. Sure, the 76ers’ 131-point outburst on Saturday is a one-game sample. Then again, the 76ers had been averaging 117.8 points per 100 possessions since Harden began playing, which ranks third-best in the league since late February. On 89 possessions against Toronto on Saturday, the Sixers produced an offensive rating of 147.2, which ranks third-highest in the 26-year history of play-by-day data. Seems good. With Toronto likely missing two of its top defenders in Barnes and Trent, this total team appears achievable. — McCormick
Best bet: Siakam over 25.5 points (-115). Siakam has played well against the 76ers all season, averaging 30.3 PPG on 50.7% FG shooting in three regular-season matchups with 26 points as his lowest scoring outing. He scored 24 points in the first game of the series, but that was as much a function of the blowout nature of the game as the 76ers stopping him (he shot 50% from the field). With Scottie Barnes (foot) questionable to play Monday, the Raptors will be pinning their hopes of stealing a game in Philadelphia to Siakam having a huge game. — snellings
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Line: Jazz-5
moneyline: Jazz – 210, Mavs +175
Total: 205 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.9
BPI Win%: Mavs (59.8%)
Key players ruled out: Tim Hardaway Jr.., Frank Ntilikina, Udoka Azubuike, Trent Forrest; Doncic is doubtful
Best bet: Jazz -5. The only question, to me, is if Doncic is playing. If so, then this pick is moot and the line would shift significantly anyway. But Adrian Wojnarowski reports “significant concern” about Doncic’s Game 2 availability, and if he sits I like the Jazz to cover again. They played relatively poorly in Game 1, getting off to a slow start with Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert combining to shoot 10-of-30 from the field, and still managed to win by six points. I think that was the low-water mark against a Luka-less Mavs squad, and if that’s the case again on Monday, the Jazz should play better and win more convincingly. — snellings
Best bet: Brunson over 4.5 assists. The Mavericks in all likelihood will be without Doncic for a second straight game. Although it’s impossible to completely fill the void left by him, I noticed from Game 1 that Brunson tried too hard to be a playmaker, finishing with 24 field-goal attempts. I envision him being more of a facilitator in Game 2. Without Doncic, Brunson averages 7.5 assists per game this season. — moody
Bestbet: Dorian Finney-Smith over 13.5 points. Due to Doncic’s absence, Finney-Smith will continue to play heavy minutes for the Mavericks. Finney-Smith has averaged 10 FGA and 13 PPG in games Doncic has missed this season. The Mavericks need to get him more involved offensively. That should happen in Game 2. — moody
Analytics Edge
BPI highest projected totals
1. Golden State Warriors (116.6 points)
2. Dallas Mavericks (112.8 points)
3. Philadelphia 76ers (112.7 points)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. Toronto Raptors (103.6 points)
2. Denver Nuggets (108.5 points)
3. Utah Jazz (110.1 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. 76ers (79.4%)
2. Warriors (76.1%)
3. Mavericks (59.8%)
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