The No. 6 seed Denver Nuggets visit the Chase Center Saturday to take on the 3rd-seeded Golden State Warriors. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 pm ET. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Warriors odds and linesand make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Warriors ended their season on a 5-game win streak, but they still struggled down the stretch as two-time MVP PG Stephen Curry hasn’t played since spraining his foot in a home loss to Boston March 16.
Golden State has been terrific as a home favorite this season, posting a 20-16-2 against the spread (ATS) record. It is 29-9 straight up as a home favorite but just 1-3 against Denver this season.
The Warriors played all 4 of those games without 4-time All-Star PF Draymond Green. As for the Nuggets, they were down star PG jamal murray the entire season and SF Michael Porter Jr. the bulk of the season.
Denver is led by reigning MVP C Nikola Jockic. The Nuggets are 12-9 ATS as road underdogs this season. They have the league’s No. 1 effective field-goal percentage.
Nuggets at Warriors odds and lines
Odds provided by Typical Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:33 am ET.
moneyline: Nuggets +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Warriors -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
Against the spread: Nuggets +6.5 (-115) | Warriors -6.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Nuggets at Warriors key injuries
GP jamal murray (knee) out SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
G Stephen Curry (foot) likely
Nuggets at Warriors picks and predictions
Warriors 114, Nuggets 111
With Curry on a minutes restriction and potentially not 100%, I would not consider more than two and a half times a potential return for the Warriors (-270) to win. Denver has value at +210, but I’d rather play the spread, taking the points.
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BET NUGGETS +6.5 (-115).
This is entirely too many points for the Nuggets. I pegged them as about 4-point underdogs, especially considering Curry may not be 100%.
Jokic has once again been the best player in the NBA, and he’s difficult to deal with. His incredible vision of him is why the Nuggets sit atop the league in true-shooting percentage.
Similarly, while the Warriors may be able to get back to their league-best defense, since the All-Star break, they rank 8th in defensive rating. It won’t be easy to get to that level in one game, especially with a rotation that will still be searching for its identity.
Also, the Nuggets rank 6th in points in the paint behind Jokic and C DeMarcus Cousins, who stands 6-foot-10 and weighs 270 pounds. The Warriors do not start a player over 6-foot-9.
I fully expect the Warriors to win the series, but getting everything back to their championship level may be difficult in this first game. Even if they win, 6.5 points are too many.
READ to the OVER222.5 (-115).
The O/U is 2-2 the 4 times these teams met this season.
With the Nuggets ranking 12th in pace since the All-Star break and the Warriors defense having fallen off a cliff in the second half of the season, I expect a high-scoring affair.
The Nuggets have gone Over in 4 of their last 6. The Warriors are 2-1 O/U in their last 3. On the season, the teams are respectively 44-36-2 O/U and 35-45-2 O/ OR.
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