the memphis grizzlies (1-1) visit the Golden State Warriors (1-1) Saturday for Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinals. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 pm ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Warriors odds and linesand make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Grizzlies are among two teams left in the playoffs with both an offensive and defensive rating in the top six during the regular season (the Phoenix Suns are the other).
That play was in full effect against the visiting Warriors in Game 2 in which PG Ja Morant dropped a game-high 47 points in a 106-101 victory. I have single-handedly abused the Warriors’ “fast five” lineup.
The series now moves to Chase Center, where the Warriors posted the NBA’s second-best home record (31-10) during the regular season – the Suns were first at 32-9. The Dubs are significantly better at home and likely won’t shoot 7-for-38 from deep again as they did in Game 2.
Golden State will be without SG Gary Payton II, the primary defender on Morant in the opener, due to a fractured elbow. Payton was injured when hit from behind on a breakaway by SF Dillon Brooks in the first 3 minutes of Game 2. Brooks received a flagrant foul 2, was ejected and has been suspended for Saturday’s contest.
Grizzlies at Warriors odds and lines
Odds provided by Typical Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:46 pm ET.
moneyline: Grizzlies +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Warriors -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Grizzlies +6.5 (-105) | Warriors -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (W: -110 | U: -110)
Grizzlies at Warriors key injuries
SF Dillon Brooks (suspension) out
F Andrew Iguodala (neck)out SG Gary Payton II (shoulder)out
Grizzlies at Warriors picks and predictions
Warriors 112, Grizzlies 110
The Warriors (-300) are entirely too expensive. The only playable side is the Grizzlies (+230), but considering the Warriors made a league-high 15 triples per game at home this season, I’d go with the points (spread) instead.
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BET GRIZZLIES +6.5 (-105).
I’m not ready to say the Grizzlies are better without Brooks, but trading Payton II for Brooks in Game 3 bodes well for Memphis. Brooks was a key player during the regular season but is shooting just 34.8% from the field during the playoffs.
Couple Payton II’s absence with the fact that the Warriors haven’t had an answer for Morant, and it seems crazy to lay 6.5 points with Golden State.
The Grizzlies had the fourth-best offensive rating and sixth-best defensive rating this season. While I expect the Warriors to come out on top, the Grizzlies will also have C Steve Adamswho was a key reason they led the league in offensive rebounding rate.
Combine it all, and GRIZZLY +6.5 (-105) to cover is my favorite bet. Chances are this won’t end as a public-favorite play either. Pregame.com currently has 59% of the tickets on Golden State.
Game 1 went Over the total, while Game 2 didn’t come close – finishing 21 points Under the 228 O/U line.
These two teams play at a sporadic pace that typically leans toward the style of the Grizzlies, who were one of the fastest-playing teams in the NBA.
If I had a lean here, it’s to the Under as I expect the Warriors to limit Morant, and Brooks’ willingness to take and sometimes make difficult shots will be missed.
With two top-six defenses, Under 225.5 (-110) is the safer play, but given the firepower for Golden State, it’s not a sure thing.
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