By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
Speaking of playoffs, it’s never too early to look toward the World Series. If you want to make a couple of bets on who will win the Fall Classic, I’ve got three futures wagers you should lock in on now.
Now that each team has approximately 25 games under their belt, we have some data we can crunch. I analyzed the latest standings and used statistics to sort out the underperforming teams. I also took into account which franchises are making concerted efforts to win now to narrow the list down even further.
With all of that said, let’s have some fun. Here are my World Series value plays, with all odds via FOX Bet.
How could the defending world champions be considered a value bet? Well, it’s because of the team’s excruciatingly slow start. Then again, facing the Dodgers, Parents and Mets in the first month of the season would make any ball club look anemic.
The Braves currently have an Expected Batting Average (XBA) in the Top 10 but a Batting Average (BA) in the bottom 10. Something has to give, and if you read my how to bet on baseball primer, you know I put more weight into XBA.
This offense also has one of the better combinations of exit velocity and launch angle in baseball (called Barrel %). Simply put, all this means Ronald Acuna, Jr. & Co. will heat up soon. This is why now is a good time to grab the Braves at this number.
Supplementing the outfield was the Phils’ biggest priority during the offseason. Philadelphia did just that by signing a couple of big bats in Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. So far, the strategy has worked. Combined with reigning NL MVP BryceHarper, the Phillies’ offense ranks third in MLB in XBA.
While Philadelphia’s offense may slip slightly the rest of the season, the pitching staff featuring Aaron Nola with his XBA of .190 and ace Zack Wheelerwho is due for an uptick, should keep the team in contention.
At 28-1, this is the time to buy low on Philadelphia.
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If you thought Boston was a surprise to make the postseason last year, it’ll be an even bigger shock if they do it again. The downside: The Red Sox play in arguably the best division in baseball alongside the new york yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays. The upside: Statistics show that they are due for some positive regression.
Newly-acquired infielder Trevor Story may be off to a slow start with a BA lower than his XBA, but only once has he finished his seven-year career with fewer than 24 home runs and 100 hits over a full season. The offense is off to a slow start, but they exhibited a lot of power (4th in ISO at .188) in 2021. If Boston’s bats start heating up, this number will shrink drastically.
So, there you have it, folks. Those are the three teams I love to potentially make some noise moving forward. There are many more expected statistics and several permutations of predictive statistics out there, and applying the latest and greatest often is key to beating the daily and futures markets. We’ll keep our eye on the ball and the analytics to help you make the most informed baseball wagers moving forward. That’s a promise.
Be sure to check back in this space soon for more futures bets!
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to becomand to amateur cold brew. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on twitter @EdWithSports.
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