The Ringer’s NBA Playoff and Lottery Odds Machine

Welcome to TheRinger‘s NBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine outlines postseason probabilities, including each team’s likelihood of making the playoffs and winning the title. The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so check back throughout the coming weeks as the league’s best teams battle for a title.

Today’s Games

home-team winning odds Road Team winning odds Expected Margin
home-team winning odds Road Team winning odds Expected Margin
Heat 61% hawks 39% Heat by 3.5
Sun’s 63% Pelicans 37% Suns by 4.5
grizzlies 66% Timberwolves 3. 4% Grizzlies by 5

Right now, the Heat are favored to win their series 92% of the time. If they win today, the series will be over. But if they lose today, those odds will fall to about 80%.

Right now, the Suns are favored to win their series 65% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 83%. But if they lose today, those odds will fall to about 33%.

Right now, the Grizzlies are favored to win their series 68% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 85%. But if they lose today, those odds will fall to about 38%.

We’re simulating the postseason every day. This chart shows each team’s likelihood of advancing in each round and winning the 2021-22 title.

Post-Season Odds

Team Make Second Round Make Third Round Make Finals Win Title
Team Make Second Round Make Third Round Make Finals Win Title
Celtics 100% 77% 54% 32%
Warriors 95% 54% 32% 17%
Heat 92% 65% 27% 14%
grizzlies 68% 35% twenty-one% eleven%
Sun’s 65% 30% 17% 9%
Mavericks 73% 43% 17% 6%
bucks 97% 23% 10% 4%
Jazz 27% 18% 9% 4%
76ers 86% 28% 8% two%
Timberwolves 32% 10% 3% <1%
Pelicans 35% 8% two% <1%
Raptors 14% 4% one% <1%
hawks 8% 3% one% <1%
Nuggets 5% one% <1% <1%
Bull’s 3% <1% <1% <1%

How likely is your favorite team to win in a sweep? What about losing in five, or winning in six, or going all the way to a nail-biter Game 7? These charts show the chances for each possible outcome in every series.

Heat vs. hawks

outcome odds
outcome odds
Heat in 4 n/a
Heat in 5 59%
Heat in 6 twenty%
Heat in 7 12%
hawks in 4 n/a
Hawks in 5 n/a
Hawks in 6 n/a
Hawks in 7 8%


Bucks vs. Bull’s

outcome odds
outcome odds
bucks in 4 n/a
Bucks in 5 69%
bucks in 6 18%
Bucks in 7 10%
Bulls in 4 n/a
Bulls in 5 n/a
Bulls in 6 n/a
Bulls in 7 3%

76ers vs. Raptors

outcome odds
outcome odds
76ers in 4 n/a
76ers in 5 n/a
76ers in 6 56%
76ers in 7 30%
Raptors in 4 n/a
Raptors in 5 n/a
Raptors in 6 n/a
Raptors in 7 14%

Suns vs. Pelicans

outcome odds
outcome odds
Suns in 4 n/a
Suns in 5 n/a
Suns in 6 33%
Suns in 7 31%
Pelicans in 4 n/a
Pelicans in 5 n/a
Pelicans in 6 17%
Pelicans in 7 18%


Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves

outcome odds
outcome odds
Grizzlies in 4 n/a
Grizzlies in 5 n/a
Grizzlies in 6 36%
Grizzlies in 7 32%
Timberwolves in 4 n/a
Timberwolves in 5 n/a
Timberwolves in 6 fifteen%
Timberwolves in 7 17%

Warriors vs. Nuggets

outcome odds
outcome odds
Warriors in 4 n/a
Warriors in 5 69%
Warriors in 6 18%
Warriors in 7 9%
Nuggets in 4 n/a
Nuggets in 5 n/a
Nuggets in 6 n/a
Nuggets in 7 5%


Mavericks vs. Jazz

outcome odds
outcome odds
Mavericks in 4 n/a
Mavericks in 5 n/a
Mavericks in 6 43%
Mavericks in 7 30%
Jazz in 4 n/a
Jazz in 5 n/a
Jazz in 6 n/a
Jazz in 7 27%

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