Welcome to TheRinger‘s NBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine outlines postseason probabilities, including each team’s likelihood of making the playoffs and winning the title. The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so check back throughout the coming weeks as the league’s best teams battle for a title.
Today’s Games
| home-team | winning odds | Road Team | winning odds | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| home-team | winning odds | Road Team | winning odds | Expected Margin |
| Heat | 61% | hawks | 39% | Heat by 3.5 |
| Sun’s | 63% | Pelicans | 37% | Suns by 4.5 |
| grizzlies | 66% | Timberwolves | 3. 4% | Grizzlies by 5 |
Right now, the Heat are favored to win their series 92% of the time. If they win today, the series will be over. But if they lose today, those odds will fall to about 80%.
Right now, the Suns are favored to win their series 65% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 83%. But if they lose today, those odds will fall to about 33%.
Right now, the Grizzlies are favored to win their series 68% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 85%. But if they lose today, those odds will fall to about 38%.
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We’re simulating the postseason every day. This chart shows each team’s likelihood of advancing in each round and winning the 2021-22 title.
Post-Season Odds
| Team | Make Second Round | Make Third Round | Make Finals | Win Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Make Second Round | Make Third Round | Make Finals | Win Title |
| Celtics | 100% | 77% | 54% | 32% |
| Warriors | 95% | 54% | 32% | 17% |
| Heat | 92% | 65% | 27% | 14% |
| grizzlies | 68% | 35% | twenty-one% | eleven% |
| Sun’s | 65% | 30% | 17% | 9% |
| Mavericks | 73% | 43% | 17% | 6% |
| bucks | 97% | 23% | 10% | 4% |
| Jazz | 27% | 18% | 9% | 4% |
| 76ers | 86% | 28% | 8% | two% |
| Timberwolves | 32% | 10% | 3% | <1% |
| Pelicans | 35% | 8% | two% | <1% |
| Raptors | 14% | 4% | one% | <1% |
| hawks | 8% | 3% | one% | <1% |
| Nuggets | 5% | one% | <1% | <1% |
| Bull’s | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
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How likely is your favorite team to win in a sweep? What about losing in five, or winning in six, or going all the way to a nail-biter Game 7? These charts show the chances for each possible outcome in every series.
Heat vs. hawks
| outcome | odds |
|---|---|
| outcome | odds |
| Heat in 4 | n/a |
| Heat in 5 | 59% |
| Heat in 6 | twenty% |
| Heat in 7 | 12% |
| hawks in 4 | n/a |
| Hawks in 5 | n/a |
| Hawks in 6 | n/a |
| Hawks in 7 | 8% |
Bucks vs. Bull’s
| outcome | odds |
|---|---|
| outcome | odds |
| bucks in 4 | n/a |
| Bucks in 5 | 69% |
| bucks in 6 | 18% |
| Bucks in 7 | 10% |
| Bulls in 4 | n/a |
| Bulls in 5 | n/a |
| Bulls in 6 | n/a |
| Bulls in 7 | 3% |
76ers vs. Raptors
| outcome | odds |
|---|---|
| outcome | odds |
| 76ers in 4 | n/a |
| 76ers in 5 | n/a |
| 76ers in 6 | 56% |
| 76ers in 7 | 30% |
| Raptors in 4 | n/a |
| Raptors in 5 | n/a |
| Raptors in 6 | n/a |
| Raptors in 7 | 14% |
Suns vs. Pelicans
| outcome | odds |
|---|---|
| outcome | odds |
| Suns in 4 | n/a |
| Suns in 5 | n/a |
| Suns in 6 | 33% |
| Suns in 7 | 31% |
| Pelicans in 4 | n/a |
| Pelicans in 5 | n/a |
| Pelicans in 6 | 17% |
| Pelicans in 7 | 18% |
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves
| outcome | odds |
|---|---|
| outcome | odds |
| Grizzlies in 4 | n/a |
| Grizzlies in 5 | n/a |
| Grizzlies in 6 | 36% |
| Grizzlies in 7 | 32% |
| Timberwolves in 4 | n/a |
| Timberwolves in 5 | n/a |
| Timberwolves in 6 | fifteen% |
| Timberwolves in 7 | 17% |
Warriors vs. Nuggets
| outcome | odds |
|---|---|
| outcome | odds |
| Warriors in 4 | n/a |
| Warriors in 5 | 69% |
| Warriors in 6 | 18% |
| Warriors in 7 | 9% |
| Nuggets in 4 | n/a |
| Nuggets in 5 | n/a |
| Nuggets in 6 | n/a |
| Nuggets in 7 | 5% |
Mavericks vs. Jazz
| outcome | odds |
|---|---|
| outcome | odds |
| Mavericks in 4 | n/a |
| Mavericks in 5 | n/a |
| Mavericks in 6 | 43% |
| Mavericks in 7 | 30% |
| Jazz in 4 | n/a |
| Jazz in 5 | n/a |
| Jazz in 6 | n/a |
| Jazz in 7 | 27% |
